The myth that economy drives election
Editor's note: Historian Kenneth C. Davis is the author of "Don't Know Much About History" and, most recently, "Don't Know Much About the American Presidents." He blogs at dontknowmuch. com (CNN) -- Is a struggling economy the key ingredient that dooms an incumbent president to a single term? The carved-in-stone political wisdom seems to suggest it is. Unemployment rates, the price of a loaf of bread or a gallon of gas, and GDP growth are held up by pundits and press as the essential indicators of whether a sitting president keeps the keys to the White House. The trouble is -- and as history shows -- it's never as simple as jobs, taxes, deficits and debt. Here's the presidential scoreboard.
People:
Franklin D. Roosevelt
Overall Sentiment: 0.0651975
Relevance: 0.830409
| Sentiment | Quote |
|---|---|
| 0.0834814 | FDR said of his opponents, "They are unanimous in their hate for me. And I welcome their hatred." |
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Disambiguation: Politician | PresidentReferences:
Jimmy Carter
Overall Sentiment: -0.108861
Relevance: 0.512607
| Sentiment | Quote |
|---|---|
| 0.304441 | Carter brokered between Israel and Egypt, it was Ronald Reagan's famous debate question -- "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" ... |
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Disambiguation: Politician | President | AwardNominee | AwardWinner | MilitaryPerson | PoliticalAppointer | USPresident | FilmActor | TVActorReferences:
president John Quincy Adams
Overall Sentiment: -0.171606
Relevance: 0.471815
Disambiguation: Politician | OfficeHolder | OperaCharacter | PoliticalAppointer | U.S.Congressperson | USPresidentReferences:
Harry S. Truman
Overall Sentiment: 0.343827
Relevance: 0.4165
Disambiguation: Politician | President | MilitaryCommander | MilitaryPerson | PoliticalAppointer | U.S.Congressperson | USPresident | USVicePresident | ElectionCampaign | TVActorReferences:
Martin Van Buren
Overall Sentiment: -0.0926135
Relevance: 0.415086
Disambiguation: Politician | President | PoliticalAppointer | U.S.Congressperson | USPresident | USVicePresident | ElectionCampaignReferences:
President William Howard Taft
Overall Sentiment: -0.46774
Relevance: 0.391548
Disambiguation: MusicalArtist | Politician | President | Dedicator | PoliticalAppointer | USPresidentReferences:
Bill Clinton
Overall Sentiment: -0.120685
Relevance: 0.384003
Disambiguation: MusicalArtist | Politician | Appointer | AwardWinner | Celebrity | MusicalGroupMember | OfficeHolder | PoliticalAppointer | TVPersonality | FilmActor | FilmWriter | USPresidentReferences:
Kenneth C. Davis
Overall Sentiment: 0
Relevance: 0.383835
| Sentiment | Quote |
|---|---|
| 0 | Kenneth C. Davis is the author of "Don't Know Much About History" |
| 0 | Kenneth C. Davis is the author of "Don't Know Much About History" and, most recently, "Don't Know Much About the American Presidents." |
| Sentiment Stats: |
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Disambiguation: References:
George H.W. Bush
Overall Sentiment: -0.318323
Relevance: 0.375954
Disambiguation: FilmCharacter | Politician | President | Appointer | BoardMember | ChivalricOrderMember | MilitaryPerson | PoliticalAppointer | U.S.Congressperson | USPresident | USVicePresident | FilmActor | TVActorReferences:
Herbert Hoover
Overall Sentiment: 0
Relevance: 0.369222
Disambiguation: Politician | President | PoliticalAppointer | SchoolFounder | USPresidentReferences:
Theodore Roosevelt
Overall Sentiment: -0.0421245
Relevance: 0.362283
| Sentiment | Quote |
|---|---|
| 0 | "Bull Moose" Roosevelt mounted a third-party challenge ... |
| Sentiment Stats: |
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Disambiguation: Politician | President | AwardWinner | Dedicatee | MilitaryPerson | PoliticalAppointer | U.S.Congressperson | USPresident | USVicePresidentReferences:
George Washington
Overall Sentiment: -0.068636
Relevance: 0.343725
Disambiguation: Politician | President | Appointer | Dedicatee | MilitaryCommander | MilitaryPerson | PoliticalAppointer | U.S.Congressperson | USPresidentReferences:
Benjamin Harrison
Overall Sentiment: -0.0906383
Relevance: 0.338471
Disambiguation: Politician | President | MilitaryCommander | MilitaryPerson | PoliticalAppointer | U.S.Congressperson | USPresidentReferences:
John Adams
Overall Sentiment: 0.234316
Relevance: 0.332253
Disambiguation: Politician | President | PoliticalAppointer | U.S.Congressperson | USPresident | USVicePresident | TVCharacterReferences:
Kenneth Davis
Overall Sentiment: 0
Relevance: 0.329594
Disambiguation: References:
William Henry Harrison
Overall Sentiment: -0.283601
Relevance: 0.317226
Disambiguation: Politician | MilitaryCommander | MilitaryPerson | OfficeHolder | PoliticalAppointer | U.S.Congressperson | USPresidentReferences:
Gerald Ford
Overall Sentiment: -0.449683
Relevance: 0.310659
Disambiguation: Politician | President | Appointee | AwardWinner | FootballPlayer | MilitaryCommander | MilitaryPerson | PoliticalAppointer | U.S.Congressperson | USPresident | USVicePresident | TVActorReferences:
Richard Nixon
Overall Sentiment: -0.290307
Relevance: 0.310532
Disambiguation: FilmCharacter | MusicalArtist | Politician | President | Appointer | MilitaryCommander | MilitaryPerson | PoliticalAppointer | TVPersonality | U.S.Congressperson | USPresident | USVicePresident | FilmActor | TVActorReferences:
Ross Perot
Overall Sentiment: -0.0587051
Relevance: 0.301675
Disambiguation: Politician | CompanyFounder | MilitaryPersonReferences:
Ronald Reagan
Overall Sentiment: 0.860563
Relevance: 0.291638
Disambiguation: Politician | President | AwardWinner | ChivalricOrderMember | MilitaryPerson | PoliticalAppointer | USPresident | FilmActor | TVActorReferences:
Thomas Jefferson
Overall Sentiment: 0.339353
Relevance: 0.280618
Disambiguation: Politician | President | Architect | AwardWinner | Dedicatee | Inventor | OperaCharacter | PoliticalAppointer | U.S.Congressperson | USPresident | USVicePresidentReferences:
Woodrow Wilson
Overall Sentiment: 0.139581
Relevance: 0.27663
Disambiguation: Politician | President | PoliticalAppointer | USPresidentReferences:
Alf Landon
Overall Sentiment: 0.228208
Relevance: 0.273486
Disambiguation: Politician | Governor | MilitaryPersonReferences:
Champ
Overall Sentiment: 0.38961
Relevance: 0.263639
Andrew Jackson
Overall Sentiment: -0.183509
Relevance: 0.257974
Disambiguation: Politician | PresidentReferences:
Key:
- Aggregate Sentiment is meant to be an indicator of an individual's overall sentiment.
- The Mean is meant to be an indicator of an individual's average comment sentiment.
- The Standard Deviation, when there are enough quotes, will indicate an individual's consistency of sentiment (i.e. a Standard Deviation of 0 would mean they were very consistent in their sentiment and 1 would mean they were very inconsistent).
Note that quote stats are likely to be meaningless beyond the aggregate score due to the tiny sample size. However, they are always provided just in case you find something useful there.
Additional Info:
Facility: White House
Overall Sentiment: -0.236688
Relevance: 0.537622
Disambiguation: Location | House | TouristAttraction | BuildingReferences:
Continent: America
Overall Sentiment: -0.103751
Relevance: 0.413765
Country: Iran
Overall Sentiment: -1
Relevance: 0.315717
Disambiguation: References:
FieldTerminology: GDP
Overall Sentiment: 0.159044
Relevance: 0.332971
HealthCondition: Depression
Overall Sentiment: -0.693501
Relevance: 0.329398
Disambiguation: DiseaseOrMedicalCondition | CauseOfDeath | RiskFactor | DiseaseReferences:
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The myth that economy drives election
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Despite the belief that the economy decides elections, Kenneth Davis says plenty of presidents have been reelected when times were tough, and others have lost during boom times.
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